Where explosion meets consistency 🏆🏈

 What makes a perfect fantasy football draft? Well there is no perfect draft. Not one person ever drafts the perfect team and runs away with his or her league. It’s almost statistically impossible and anyone that tells you differently is lying. It’s actually somewhat similar to picking lottery numbers. You are hoping that each player drafted “hits” during the season just like a lottery number.

  How can we improve our odds of making more correct picks than incorrect picks? Well, there are tons of analytics and prognosticators that can point you in one direction or the other. A flood of information has been right at the fingertips of managers for years now. In the early 2000’s you may have had one waiver wire article a week. Whoever bothered to log into their dial up computer and hunt down the info normally made the right moves. Now everyone has hundreds of suggestions on tons of different platforms. In an era of information overload sometimes less is more. So why don't we just keep it simple stupid? My simple strategy every year is draft for consistency and explosiveness. 

   Finding consistency and explosiveness is important. You have to have both to win in fantasy football. A few years ago I was managing a team that was good but not great. I never had a player that in one play could put me ahead or close a large gap. Essentially once I fell behind it was over. Remember we want to get past the “thin gold line”.I vowed to always grab some players with explosive upside each year after that season. We can use metrics like average depth of target and yards per carry to measure big play ability. These help us find how “explosive a player is”. Consistency is exactly how it sounds. Does a player get me consistently 10 ppg? That would be excellent right? If we have both we have a winning formula. 

  Some players have both consistently and explosiveness. Exhibit A would be Ja’Marr Chase. One play he can hit you over the top for a 50 yard td (explosive) and get 10 catches( consistent). These guys we want to target in the first two rounds. Let’s take a look at who has both in spades this year.

• Bijan Robinson
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Jaxson Smith- Njigba
• Johnathan Taylor
• Justin Jefferson
• Devonta Smith
• Ceedee Lamb
• Aj Brown

It’s an interesting list. Some names are no brainers. Devonta Smith, does he belong with these other names? It’s not what we know. It’s  what we can anticipate. He should get a chance at 8 targets per game and lord knows he can take a top off a defense. Just ask UGA fans. 

 Next is heavy on explosiveness, not so much on consistency.

• De’von Achane
• Jaylen Waddle
• Nico Collins
• Tee Higgins
• Garrett Wilson
• Treyveon Henderson
• Jameson Williams
• Christian Watson

 Interesting list again. Jameson Williams is the poster child for this category. He can get you 25 points or a fat goose egg. I wouldn't want to pair him with more high risk high reward players like the ones on this list. Collins and Wilson end up here because of inconsistent quarterback play. Still all it takes is deep ball and now you’re cooking.

 Lastly, and surely most boring is the consistency category.

• Ladd McConkey
• Christian McCaffery
• Rasheed Rice
• Chase Brown
• Puka Nacua
• Amon-Ra St Brown
• Zay Flowers

 You could almost exclusively draft from this category and do very well in full PPR formats. Down the stretch and with the ups and downs of the season it is best to blend some explosive upside players with this tier. 

 This is not an exhaustive list but it does give you an idea how to blend high explosiveness with boring consistency. When you have both it gives you a great chance at success. Blend these tiers correctly and it could give you an edge in your league. 

-FFguru24